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Hapoel Hadera vs Ashdod — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Hadera
Hapoel Hadera
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ashdod
Ashdod
1/20/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 18Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Hapoel Hadera35%
×Draw27%
Ashdod39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Hadera
1.25
Ashdod
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 119 away

creates per match

Hapoel Hadera
1.00
Ashdod
1.17

allows per match

Hapoel Hadera
1.50
Ashdod
1.51

finishing

Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par
Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Hadera ↓

Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Hadera or draw
61%
Hapoel Hadera or Ashdod
73%
Draw or Ashdod
65%

Winning margin

Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+
15%
Ashdod wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals
71%
Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals
36%
Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals
13%
Ashdod 1+ goals
74%
Ashdod 2+ goals
38%
Ashdod 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)
47%
Ashdod (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Hadera at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 101 matches

Ashdod away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.51 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.00 + Ashdod defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ashdod attack 1.17 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hapoel Hadera scores more
35%
level
27%
Ashdod scores more
39%

Ashdod at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Hadera vs Ashdod

Hapoel Hadera and Ashdod drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.