Ashdod 1–1 Hapoel Hadera: Result & Stats

Ashdod

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Hadera

1/12/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Round 18Yud-Alef Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Ashdod38%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Hadera35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AshdodExpected goals in this matchHapoel Hadera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.22

Ashdod

1.29

Hapoel Hadera

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 97 away

1.27

creates per match

1.03

1.41

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Ashdod

1.27

Hapoel Hadera

1.03

allows per match

Ashdod

1.41

Hapoel Hadera

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ashdod+0.00on par

Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashdod ↓

Hapoel Hadera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ashdod or draw

65%

Ashdod or Hapoel Hadera

73%

Draw or Hapoel Hadera

62%

Winning margin

Ashdod wins by 2+

17%

Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ashdod 1+ goals

72%

Ashdod 2+ goals

37%

Ashdod 3+ goals

14%

Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals

70%

Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals

34%

Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ashdod (draw refunded)

52%

Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashdod at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Hapoel Hadera away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashdod attack 1.27 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.03 + Ashdod defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ashdod scores more

38%

level

27%

Hapoel Hadera scores more

35%

Ashdod at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff