Hapoel Bnei Lod 1–4 Hapoel Azor: Result & Stats

Hapoel Bnei Lod

FT

1 – 4

Hapoel Azor

4/5/2021

League #496 · South A - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Bnei Lod33%

×Draw23%

Hapoel Azor44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Bnei LodExpected goals in this matchHapoel Azor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.75

Hapoel Bnei Lod

1.50

Hapoel Azor

1.75

Hapoel Azor creates 17% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

2.00

1.50

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Hapoel Bnei Lod

1.25

Hapoel Azor

2.00

allows per match

Hapoel Bnei Lod

1.50

Hapoel Azor

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Bnei Lod+0.00on par

Hapoel Azor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bnei Lod ↓

Hapoel Azor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hapoel Bnei Lod or draw

56%

Hapoel Bnei Lod or Hapoel Azor

77%

Draw or Hapoel Azor

67%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bnei Lod wins by 2+

16%

Hapoel Azor wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Hapoel Bnei Lod 1+ goals

78%

Hapoel Bnei Lod 2+ goals

44%

Hapoel Bnei Lod 3+ goals

19%

Hapoel Azor 1+ goals

83%

Hapoel Azor 2+ goals

52%

Hapoel Azor 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bnei Lod (draw refunded)

43%

Hapoel Azor (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bnei Lod at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Hapoel Azor away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bnei Lod attack 1.25 + Hapoel Azor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hapoel Azor attack 2.00 + Hapoel Bnei Lod defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Bnei Lod scores more

33%

level

23%

Hapoel Azor scores more

44%

Hapoel Azor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hapoel Azor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff