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Hapoel Azor vs Hapoel Bnei Lod — League #496 2026

Hapoel Azor
Hapoel Azor
FT
4 – 0
Hapoel Bnei Lod
Hapoel Bnei Lod
10/29/2021League #496League #496 · South - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Azor67%
×Draw18%
Hapoel Bnei Lod15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Azor
2.33
Hapoel Bnei Lod
1.00

Hapoel Azor creates 133% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hapoel Azor
2.00
Hapoel Bnei Lod
1.33

allows per match

Hapoel Azor
0.67
Hapoel Bnei Lod
2.67

finishing

Hapoel Azor+0.00on par
Hapoel Bnei Lod+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Azor ↓

Hapoel Bnei Lod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hapoel Azor or draw
85%
Hapoel Azor or Hapoel Bnei Lod
82%
Draw or Hapoel Bnei Lod
33%

Winning margin

Hapoel Azor wins by 2+
44%
Hapoel Bnei Lod wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hapoel Azor 1+ goals
90%
Hapoel Azor 2+ goals
67%
Hapoel Azor 3+ goals
41%
Hapoel Bnei Lod 1+ goals
63%
Hapoel Bnei Lod 2+ goals
26%
Hapoel Bnei Lod 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Azor (draw refunded)
82%
Hapoel Bnei Lod (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Azor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Hapoel Bnei Lod away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Azor attack 2.00 + Hapoel Bnei Lod defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Hapoel Bnei Lod attack 1.33 + Hapoel Azor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Hapoel Azor scores more
67%
level
18%
Hapoel Bnei Lod scores more
15%

Hapoel Azor at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Hapoel Azor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hapoel Azor 4 – 0 Hapoel Bnei Lod

Hapoel Azor beat Hapoel Bnei Lod 4-0 in League #496 on October 29, 2021.