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Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden vs Maccabi Kiryat Malachi — League #496 2026

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
4/5/2024League #496League #496 · South - 25Moshava Training Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden33%
×Draw25%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.32
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
1.52

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi creates 15% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
0.89
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
1.25

allows per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.79
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
1.75

finishing

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden+0.00on par
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden ↓

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or draw
58%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
75%
Draw or Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
67%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden wins by 2+
14%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1+ goals
73%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2+ goals
38%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3+ goals
15%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1+ goals
78%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 2+ goals
45%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden (draw refunded)
44%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden attack 0.89 + Maccabi Kiryat Malachi defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.32

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi attack 1.25 + Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden scores more
33%
level
25%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi scores more
42%

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #496: Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3–2 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden beat Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3-2 in League #496 on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Moshava Training Field in Petach-Tikva.