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Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden vs Maccabi Kiryat Malachi — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
Y. A. Sallich 80', 58'
A. Ketan 2'
L. Haile 42' (pen)
I. Semin 25'
9/20/2022State CupState Cup · 6th RoundMoshava Training Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden48%
×Draw23%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.83
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
1.38

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.67
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
1.75

allows per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.00
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
2.00

finishing

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden+0.00on par
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden ↓

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or draw
71%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
77%
Draw or Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
52%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden wins by 2+
26%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1+ goals
84%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2+ goals
54%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3+ goals
28%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1+ goals
75%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 2+ goals
40%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden (draw refunded)
62%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden attack 1.67 + Maccabi Kiryat Malachi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi attack 1.75 + Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden scores more
48%
level
23%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi scores more
29%

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
A. Ketan
25'
I. Semin
42'
L. HailePenalty
58'
Y. A. Sallich
80'
Y. A. Sallich
88'
Y. Blaish
88'
Y. Blaish
88'
M. Khoury

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden vs Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden beat Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3-2 in State Cup on September 20, 2022.

Goals: A. Ketan (2'), I. Semin (25'), L. Haile (42' pen), Y. A. Sallich (58', 80').

The match was played at Moshava Training Field in Petach-Tikva.