Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Ashdod — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ashdod
Ashdod
3/16/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 26Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva53%
×Draw24%
Ashdod23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.71
Ashdod
1.03

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 66% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 119 away

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.92
Ashdod
1.17

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.90
Ashdod
1.51

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par
Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw
77%
Hapoel Beer Sheva or Ashdod
76%
Draw or Ashdod
47%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
29%
Ashdod wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
82%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
51%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
24%
Ashdod 1+ goals
64%
Ashdod 2+ goals
28%
Ashdod 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
70%
Ashdod (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.90 · 126 matches

Ashdod away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.51 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.92 + Ashdod defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ashdod attack 1.17 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
53%
level
24%
Ashdod scores more
23%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–0 Ashdod

Hapoel Beer Sheva beat Ashdod 1-0 in Ligat Ha'al on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium in Be'er Sheva.