Ashdod 0–2 Hapoel Beer Sheva: Result & Stats

Ashdod

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hapoel Beer Sheva

2/8/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Round 22Yud-Alef Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Ashdod31%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Beer Sheva43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AshdodExpected goals in this matchHapoel Beer Sheva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.40

Ashdod

1.14

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.40

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 23% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 126 away

1.27

creates per match

1.38

1.41

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Ashdod

1.27

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.38

allows per match

Ashdod

1.41

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ashdod+0.00on par

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashdod ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ashdod or draw

57%

Ashdod or Hapoel Beer Sheva

73%

Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva

69%

Winning margin

Ashdod wins by 2+

12%

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ashdod 1+ goals

68%

Ashdod 2+ goals

32%

Ashdod 3+ goals

11%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

75%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

41%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ashdod (draw refunded)

42%

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashdod at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.01 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashdod attack 1.27 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.14

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.38 + Ashdod defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ashdod scores more

31%

level

27%

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

43%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff