Hapoel Beer Sheva 4–0 Arda Kardzhali

Hapoel Beer Sheva

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Arda Kardzhali

7/29/2021

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundHaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva66%

×Draw23%

Arda Kardzhali11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Beer ShevaExpected goals in this matchArda Kardzhali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.51

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.68

Arda Kardzhali

0.51

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 229% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

1.69

creates per match

0.33

0.69

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.69

Arda Kardzhali

0.33

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva

0.69

Arda Kardzhali

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Arda Kardzhali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw

89%

Hapoel Beer Sheva or Arda Kardzhali

77%

Draw or Arda Kardzhali

34%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

38%

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

81%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

50%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

24%

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

40%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

9%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

86%

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.69 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.68

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.33 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

66%

level

23%

Arda Kardzhali scores more

11%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff