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Arda Kardzhali vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
7/22/2021UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundArena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Arda Kardzhali30%
×Draw31%
Hapoel Beer Sheva39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
0.88
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.04

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 18% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
0.75
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.07

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.00

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
61%
Arda Kardzhali or Hapoel Beer Sheva
69%
Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva
70%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
10%
Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
59%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
22%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
6%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
65%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
28%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
44%
Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.75 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.07 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
30%
level
31%
Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
39%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Arda Kardzhali 0–2 Hapoel Beer Sheva

Hapoel Beer Sheva beat Arda Kardzhali 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 22, 2021.

The match was played at Arena Arda in Kardzhali.