Hapoel Asi Gilboa 1–0 Maccabi Tzur Shalom

Hapoel Asi Gilboa

FT

1 – 0

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

3/4/2018

League #496 · North - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Asi Gilboa37%

×Draw44%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Asi GilboaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Tzur Shalom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

0.38

Hapoel Asi Gilboa

0.67

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

0.38

Hapoel Asi Gilboa creates 76% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

0.33

creates per match

0.75

0.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Hapoel Asi Gilboa

0.33

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

0.75

allows per match

Hapoel Asi Gilboa

0.00

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Asi Gilboa+0.00on par

Maccabi Tzur Shalom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under91
Over9

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No85
Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Asi Gilboa ↓

Maccabi Tzur Shalom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–035%

0–113%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–13%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (35%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

65%35%1.5

28%72%2.5

9%91%3.5

2%98%4.5

0%100%

Double chance

Hapoel Asi Gilboa or draw

82%

Hapoel Asi Gilboa or Maccabi Tzur Shalom

56%

Draw or Maccabi Tzur Shalom

63%

Winning margin

Hapoel Asi Gilboa wins by 2+

11%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Hapoel Asi Gilboa 1+ goals

49%

Hapoel Asi Gilboa 2+ goals

15%

Hapoel Asi Gilboa 3+ goals

3%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1+ goals

32%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 2+ goals

6%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Asi Gilboa (draw refunded)

67%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

7%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Asi Gilboa at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Maccabi Tzur Shalom away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Asi Gilboa attack 0.33 + Maccabi Tzur Shalom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Maccabi Tzur Shalom attack 0.75 + Hapoel Asi Gilboa defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hapoel Asi Gilboa scores more

37%

level

44%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom scores more

18%

Hapoel Asi Gilboa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hapoel Asi Gilboa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff