West Ham 1–0 Tottenham: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tottenham

M. Antonio 7'

3/2/2016

Premier League · Round 28London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

West Ham41%

×Draw25%

Tottenham34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.34

West Ham

1.50

Tottenham

1.34

West Ham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

1.38

creates per match

1.17

1.51

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

West Ham

1.38

Tottenham

1.17

allows per match

West Ham

1.51

Tottenham

1.62

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

66%

West Ham or Tottenham

75%

Draw or Tottenham

59%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

20%

Tottenham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

78%

West Ham 2+ goals

44%

West Ham 3+ goals

19%

Tottenham 1+ goals

74%

Tottenham 2+ goals

39%

Tottenham 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

55%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tottenham attack 1.17 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

West Ham scores more

41%

level

25%

Tottenham scores more

34%

West Ham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

M. Antonio

West Ham · M

7.8

Match Events

7'

30'

41'

61'

65'

66'

R. Oxford← J. Collins

70'

Heung-Min Son← E. Lamela

73'

A. Carroll← E. Emenike

77'

T. Carroll← K. Wimmer

84'

D. Sakho← M. Lanzini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestTottenham

Overview

34%Possession66%

14Total Shots9

6Corners3

0Fouls0

Shots

14Total Shots9

3On Target3

6Off Target6

5Blocked0

5Inside Box4

9Outside Box5

Passing

34%Possession66%

266Total Passes502

151Accurate Passes368

57%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

0Fouls0

0Yellow Cards3

7Offsides2