Hapoel Afula vs Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla — Liga Leumit 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 56+ matches
Hapoel Afula40%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hapoel Afula creates 12% more chances
Season form · 132 home / 56 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hapoel Afula ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hapoel Afula at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 132 matches
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.50 · 56 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hapoel Afula attack 1.21 + Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla attack 1.14 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Hapoel Afula at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Afula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Maccabi Herzliya
Bnei Yehuda
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Kiryat Yam SC
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Ra'anana
Hapoel Rishon LeZionHapoel Afula
Kafr Qasim
Hapoel Acre
Ironi Modi'in
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel HaderaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hapoel Afula host Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla on Monday, 8 February 2021 at 17:45. The match is part of the Liga Leumit 2019/2020 season.
Liga Leumit: Hapoel Afula 0–1 Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla beat Hapoel Afula 1-0 in Liga Leumit on February 8, 2021.
The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.