Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla vs Hapoel Afula — Liga Leumit 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 40+ matches
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla43%
Hapoel Afula31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla creates 21% more chances
Season form · 40 home / 114 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 40 matches
Hapoel Afula away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.64 · 114 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla attack 1.35 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50
Hapoel Afula attack 1.08 + Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla host Hapoel Afula on Thursday, 24 September 2020 at 16:30. The match is part of the Liga Leumit 2019/2020 season.
Liga Leumit: Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 2–1 Hapoel Afula
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla beat Hapoel Afula 2-1 in Liga Leumit on September 24, 2020.
Goals: G. Dahan (1'), P. Guiagon (45+1'), Y. Mizrachi (68').
The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.