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Hapoel Acre vs Agudat Sport Ashdod — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Acre
Hapoel Acre
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Agudat Sport Ashdod
Agudat Sport Ashdod
12/28/2021Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 17Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hapoel Acre54%
×Draw26%
Agudat Sport Ashdod21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Acre
1.52
Agudat Sport Ashdod
0.83

Hapoel Acre creates 83% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 38 away

creates per match

Hapoel Acre
1.13
Agudat Sport Ashdod
0.61

allows per match

Hapoel Acre
1.05
Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.92

finishing

Hapoel Acre+0.00on par
Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Acre ↓

Agudat Sport Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Acre or draw
79%
Hapoel Acre or Agudat Sport Ashdod
74%
Draw or Agudat Sport Ashdod
46%

Winning margin

Hapoel Acre wins by 2+
28%
Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hapoel Acre 1+ goals
78%
Hapoel Acre 2+ goals
45%
Hapoel Acre 3+ goals
20%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals
56%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals
20%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)
72%
Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Acre at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.05 · 114 matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Acre attack 1.13 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.52

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 0.61 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hapoel Acre scores more
54%
level
26%
Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more
21%

Hapoel Acre at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hapoel Acre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Acre vs Agudat Sport Ashdod

Hapoel Acre and Agudat Sport Ashdod drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on December 28, 2021.

The match was played at Acre Municipal Stadium in Accre.