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Agudat Sport Ashdod vs Hapoel Acre — State Cup 2019

Agudat Sport Ashdod
Agudat Sport Ashdod
FT
2 – 0
Hapoel Acre
Hapoel Acre
10/29/2019State CupState Cup · 7th RoundAshdod Senti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod45%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Acre28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.35
Hapoel Acre
1.00

Agudat Sport Ashdod creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.50
Hapoel Acre
1.00

allows per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.00
Hapoel Acre
1.20

finishing

Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par
Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agudat Sport Ashdod ↓

Hapoel Acre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Agudat Sport Ashdod or draw
72%
Agudat Sport Ashdod or Hapoel Acre
73%
Draw or Hapoel Acre
55%

Winning margin

Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+
21%
Hapoel Acre wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals
74%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals
39%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals
15%
Hapoel Acre 1+ goals
63%
Hapoel Acre 2+ goals
26%
Hapoel Acre 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)
62%
Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agudat Sport Ashdod at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Hapoel Acre away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 1.50 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hapoel Acre attack 1.00 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more
45%
level
27%
Hapoel Acre scores more
28%

Agudat Sport Ashdod at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Agudat Sport Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Agudat Sport Ashdod 2–0 Hapoel Acre

Agudat Sport Ashdod beat Hapoel Acre 2-0 in State Cup on October 29, 2019.

The match was played at Ashdod Senti in Ashdod.