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Hanwell Town vs Farnham Town — League #60 2026

Hanwell Town
Hanwell Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Farnham Town
Farnham Town
4/16/2026League #60League #60

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hanwell Town36%
×Draw27%
Farnham Town37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hanwell Town
1.25
Farnham Town
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hanwell Town
1.50
Farnham Town
1.54

allows per match

Hanwell Town
1.00
Farnham Town
1.00

finishing

Hanwell Town+0.00on par
Farnham Town+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanwell Town ↓

Farnham Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hanwell Town or draw
63%
Hanwell Town or Farnham Town
73%
Draw or Farnham Town
64%

Winning margin

Hanwell Town wins by 2+
16%
Farnham Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hanwell Town 1+ goals
71%
Hanwell Town 2+ goals
36%
Hanwell Town 3+ goals
13%
Farnham Town 1+ goals
72%
Farnham Town 2+ goals
36%
Farnham Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hanwell Town (draw refunded)
49%
Farnham Town (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanwell Town at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Farnham Town away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanwell Town attack 1.50 + Farnham Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Farnham Town attack 1.54 + Hanwell Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hanwell Town scores more
36%
level
27%
Farnham Town scores more
37%

Farnham Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Farnham Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #60: Hanwell Town 1–1 Farnham Town

Hanwell Town and Farnham Town drew 1-1 in League #60 on April 16, 2026.