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Farnham Town vs Hanwell Town — League #60 2026

Farnham Town
Farnham Town
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hanwell Town
Hanwell Town
3/7/2026League #60League #60

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Farnham Town60%
×Draw19%
Hanwell Town21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farnham Town
2.44
Hanwell Town
1.39

Farnham Town creates 76% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Farnham Town
2.13
Hanwell Town
1.50

allows per match

Farnham Town
1.27
Hanwell Town
2.75

finishing

Farnham Town+0.00on par
Hanwell Town+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnham Town ↓

Hanwell Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Farnham Town or draw
79%
Farnham Town or Hanwell Town
81%
Draw or Hanwell Town
40%

Winning margin

Farnham Town wins by 2+
39%
Hanwell Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Farnham Town 1+ goals
91%
Farnham Town 2+ goals
70%
Farnham Town 3+ goals
43%
Hanwell Town 1+ goals
75%
Hanwell Town 2+ goals
40%
Hanwell Town 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Farnham Town (draw refunded)
74%
Hanwell Town (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnham Town at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Hanwell Town away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnham Town attack 2.13 + Hanwell Town defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.44

Hanwell Town attack 1.50 + Farnham Town defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Farnham Town scores more
60%
level
19%
Hanwell Town scores more
21%

Farnham Town at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Farnham Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #60: Farnham Town 3–1 Hanwell Town

Farnham Town beat Hanwell Town 3-1 in League #60 on March 7, 2026.