Hansa Rostock 2–2 Hamburger SV: Result & Stats

Hansa Rostock

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hamburger SV

2/17/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 22Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hansa Rostock29%

×Draw24%

Hamburger SV47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa RostockExpected goals in this matchHamburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.63

Hansa Rostock

1.23

Hamburger SV

1.63

Hamburger SV creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 119 away

1.08

creates per match

1.74

1.51

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Hansa Rostock

1.08

Hamburger SV

1.74

allows per match

Hansa Rostock

1.51

Hamburger SV

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

Hamburger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw

53%

Hansa Rostock or Hamburger SV

76%

Draw or Hamburger SV

71%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

12%

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

71%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

35%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

13%

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

80%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

48%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

38%

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.08 + Hamburger SV defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hamburger SV attack 1.74 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more

29%

level

24%

Hamburger SV scores more

47%

Hamburger SV at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff