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Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
7/24/20222. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 2Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hamburger SV57%
×Draw23%
Hansa Rostock21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV
1.85
Hansa Rostock
1.02

Hamburger SV creates 81% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV
2.12
Hansa Rostock
0.94

allows per match

Hamburger SV
1.11
Hansa Rostock
1.57

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw
79%
Hamburger SV or Hansa Rostock
77%
Draw or Hansa Rostock
43%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+
33%
Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals
84%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
55%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
28%
Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
64%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
27%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
73%
Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.11 · 118 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.12 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.85

Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + Hamburger SV defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hamburger SV scores more
57%
level
23%
Hansa Rostock scores more
21%

Hamburger SV at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock

Hansa Rostock beat Hamburger SV 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.