Hansa Rostock 3–0 Greifswalder FC: Result & Stats

Hansa Rostock

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Greifswalder FC

B. Lennemann 56'

A. Voglsammer 32'

F. Carstens 3'

7/15/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hansa Rostock56%

×Draw19%

Greifswalder FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa RostockExpected goals in this matchGreifswalder FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.61

Hansa Rostock

2.45

Greifswalder FC

1.61

Hansa Rostock creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

3.20

creates per match

2.10

1.13

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Hansa Rostock

3.20

Greifswalder FC

2.10

allows per match

Hansa Rostock

1.13

Greifswalder FC

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

Greifswalder FC →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw

75%

Hansa Rostock or Greifswalder FC

81%

Draw or Greifswalder FC

44%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

35%

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

91%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

70%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

44%

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals

80%

Greifswalder FC 2+ goals

48%

Greifswalder FC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

69%

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 3.20 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.45

Greifswalder FC attack 2.10 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more

56%

level

19%

Greifswalder FC scores more

25%

Hansa Rostock at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

F. Carstens

32'

A. Voglsammer

56'

B. Lennemann

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff