Greifswalder FC 2–3 Hansa Rostock: Result & Stats

Greifswalder FC

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Hansa Rostock

M. K. Huther 50'

S. Benyamina 21'

M. Eglseder 56' (OG)

A. Voglsammer 24'

B. Schulz 8'

7/5/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Volksstadion Greifswald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Greifswalder FC28%

×Draw20%

Hansa Rostock52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greifswalder FCExpected goals in this matchHansa Rostock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

2.33

Greifswalder FC

1.70

Hansa Rostock

2.33

Hansa Rostock creates 37% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

2.64

creates per match

3.75

0.91

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Greifswalder FC

2.64

Hansa Rostock

3.75

allows per match

Greifswalder FC

0.91

Hansa Rostock

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

Hansa Rostock →

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw

48%

Greifswalder FC or Hansa Rostock

80%

Draw or Hansa Rostock

72%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+

14%

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals

82%

Greifswalder FC 2+ goals

51%

Greifswalder FC 3+ goals

24%

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

90%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

67%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)

35%

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 3.75, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 2.64 + Hansa Rostock defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.70

Hansa Rostock attack 3.75 + Greifswalder FC defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more

28%

level

20%

Hansa Rostock scores more

52%

Hansa Rostock at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

24'

50'

56'

M. EglsederOwn goal

Greifswalder

Hansa

Manager: M. Zschiesche

Manager: Daniel Brinkmann