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Hansa Rostock vs FC Nurnberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Nurnberg
FC Nurnberg
11/9/20222. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 16Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hansa Rostock38%
×Draw25%
FC Nurnberg38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
1.44
FC Nurnberg
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 121 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
1.08
FC Nurnberg
1.38

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
1.51
FC Nurnberg
1.79

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

FC Nurnberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
62%
Hansa Rostock or FC Nurnberg
75%
Draw or FC Nurnberg
62%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
18%
FC Nurnberg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
76%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
42%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
18%
FC Nurnberg 1+ goals
76%
FC Nurnberg 2+ goals
42%
FC Nurnberg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
50%
FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.08 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Nurnberg attack 1.38 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
38%
level
25%
FC Nurnberg scores more
38%

Hansa Rostock at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock vs FC Nurnberg

Hansa Rostock and FC Nurnberg drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.