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FC Nurnberg vs Hansa Rostock — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Nurnberg
FC Nurnberg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
5/21/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 33Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC Nurnberg44%
×Draw26%
Hansa Rostock30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nurnberg
1.46
Hansa Rostock
1.16

FC Nurnberg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 51 away

creates per match

FC Nurnberg
1.35
Hansa Rostock
0.94

allows per match

FC Nurnberg
1.38
Hansa Rostock
1.57

finishing

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nurnberg ↓

Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Nurnberg or draw
70%
FC Nurnberg or Hansa Rostock
74%
Draw or Hansa Rostock
56%

Winning margin

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+
21%
Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals
77%
FC Nurnberg 2+ goals
43%
FC Nurnberg 3+ goals
18%
Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
69%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
32%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)
59%
Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nurnberg at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 121 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nurnberg attack 1.35 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Nurnberg scores more
44%
level
26%
Hansa Rostock scores more
30%

FC Nurnberg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Nurnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Nurnberg vs Hansa Rostock

FC Nurnberg and Hansa Rostock drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Max-Morlock-Stadion in Nürnberg.