Hansa Rostock 0–2 FC Kaiserslautern: Result & Stats

Hansa Rostock

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Kaiserslautern

10/21/2022

2. Bundesliga · Round 13Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hansa Rostock37%

×Draw26%

FC Kaiserslautern37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa RostockExpected goals in this matchFC Kaiserslautern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.37

Hansa Rostock

1.38

FC Kaiserslautern

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

1.08

creates per match

1.23

1.51

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Hansa Rostock

1.08

FC Kaiserslautern

1.23

allows per match

Hansa Rostock

1.51

FC Kaiserslautern

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

FC Kaiserslautern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw

63%

Hansa Rostock or FC Kaiserslautern

74%

Draw or FC Kaiserslautern

63%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

17%

FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

75%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

40%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

16%

FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

75%

FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

40%

FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

50%

FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

FC Kaiserslautern away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.08 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.23 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more

37%

level

26%

FC Kaiserslautern scores more

37%

Hansa Rostock at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff