FC Kaiserslautern 3–1 Hansa Rostock: Result & Stats

FC Kaiserslautern

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Hansa Rostock

9/24/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 7Fritz-Walter-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC Kaiserslautern50%

×Draw24%

Hansa Rostock26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC KaiserslauternExpected goals in this matchHansa Rostock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.17

FC Kaiserslautern

1.72

Hansa Rostock

1.17

FC Kaiserslautern creates 47% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 51 away

1.87

creates per match

0.94

1.41

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

FC Kaiserslautern

1.87

Hansa Rostock

0.94

allows per match

FC Kaiserslautern

1.41

Hansa Rostock

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Kaiserslautern ↓

Hansa Rostock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Kaiserslautern or draw

74%

FC Kaiserslautern or Hansa Rostock

76%

Draw or Hansa Rostock

50%

Winning margin

FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

27%

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

82%

FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

51%

FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

25%

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

69%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

33%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

66%

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.87 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.72

Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Kaiserslautern scores more

50%

level

24%

Hansa Rostock scores more

26%

FC Kaiserslautern at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff