Hansa Rostock U19 0–2 Hamburger SV U19

Hansa Rostock U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hamburger SV U19

J. Kilo 87' (pen)

T. Sanne 58'

2/11/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 13Kunstrasenplatz Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Hansa Rostock U1936%

×Draw20%

Hamburger SV U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa Rostock U19Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

2.18

Hansa Rostock U19

1.96

Hamburger SV U19

2.18

Hamburger SV U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 72 away

2.05

creates per match

2.01

2.36

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.05

Hamburger SV U19

2.01

allows per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.36

Hamburger SV U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock U19 or draw

56%

Hansa Rostock U19 or Hamburger SV U19

80%

Draw or Hamburger SV U19

64%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

19%

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

86%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

58%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

31%

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

89%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

64%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.36 · 59 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.88 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 2.05 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.01 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

36%

level

20%

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

44%

Hamburger SV U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

E. Appiah← G. Kiveta-Ndongalasiya

58'

T. Sanne

69'

T. Krohn← K. Antosiak

72'

A. da Graça Marques← T. Sanne

87'

J. KiloPenalty

89'

L. Sperner← A. Wrębiakowski

89'

M. Hauer← R. Celotto

89'

E. Ceesay← D. Igboanugo

89'

J. Agyekum← B. Lamce

89'

J. Nehl← J. Kilo

Hansa

Hamburger

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kilo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Rahn

69'▲T. Krohn←▼K. Antosiak

89'▲L. Sperner←▼A. Wrębiakowski

89'▲M. Hauer←▼R. Celotto

Hansa Rostock U19 substitutes

KrohnSpernerHauerMaurerWestendorfMohammadiRotfuß

Manager: O. Kirch

58'▲E. Appiah←▼G. Kiveta-Ndongalasiya

72'▲A. da Graça Marques←▼T. Sanne

89'▲E. Ceesay←▼D. Igboanugo

89'▲J. Agyekum←▼B. Lamce

89'▲J. Nehl←▼J. Kilo

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

AppiahMarquesCeesayAgyekumNehlHeinbockelSrougbo

U19 Bundesliga: Hansa Rostock U19 0–2 Hamburger SV U19

Hamburger SV U19 beat Hansa Rostock U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 11, 2023.

Goals: T. Sanne (58'), J. Kilo (87' pen).

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Volksstadion in Rostock.

Hansa Rostock U19 vs Hamburger SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hansa Rostock U19 0–2 Hamburger SV U19