Hamburger SV U19 2–4 Hansa Rostock U19

Hamburger SV U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Hansa Rostock U19

O. Stange 88', 72' (pen)

L. Stoldt 85' (pen), 24', 5'

M. Kelm 28'

10/1/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 8HSV-Trainingsgelände

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Hamburger SV U1951%

×Draw20%

Hansa Rostock U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV U19Expected goals in this matchHansa Rostock U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.82

Hamburger SV U19

2.44

Hansa Rostock U19

1.82

Hamburger SV U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 58 away

2.46

creates per match

1.84

1.80

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19

2.46

Hansa Rostock U19

1.84

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19

1.80

Hansa Rostock U19

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Hansa Rostock U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw

71%

Hamburger SV U19 or Hansa Rostock U19

80%

Draw or Hansa Rostock U19

49%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

32%

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

91%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

70%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

43%

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

84%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

54%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.80 · 69 matches

Hansa Rostock U19 away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.46 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.44

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 1.84 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

51%

level

20%

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

29%

Hamburger SV U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

24'

28'

45'

60'

J. Bugaj← C. Nana-Sarhene

66'

D. Richardt← E. Jaschan

66'

N. Tuppeck← K. Ojo

69'

C. Weber← M. Kelm

72'

O. StangePenalty

75'

A. Buljubašić← H. Schümann

75'

Y. Rusani← M. Reimers

81'

B. Peters← J. Linow

81'

S. Termini← R. Falk

85'

L. StoldtPenalty

88'

O. Stange

Hamburger

Hansa

⚽

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: L. Pfeiffer

45'▲J. Nabe←▼A. Suljevic

60'▲J. Bugaj←▼C. Nana-Sarhene

66'▲D. Richardt←▼E. Jaschan

66'▲N. Tuppeck←▼K. Ojo

75'▲A. Buljubašić←▼H. Schümann

75'▲Y. Rusani←▼M. Reimers

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

NabeBugajRichardtTuppeckBuljubašićRusaniBrätz

Manager: C. Rahn

69'▲C. Weber←▼M. Kelm

81'▲B. Peters←▼J. Linow

81'▲S. Termini←▼R. Falk

Hansa Rostock U19 substitutes

WeberPetersTerminiCierachJankeBillepSchreck

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 2–4 Hansa Rostock U19

Hansa Rostock U19 beat Hamburger SV U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on October 1, 2024.

Goals: L. Stoldt (5', 24', 85' pen), M. Kelm (28'), O. Stange (72' pen, 88').

The match was played at HSV-Trainingsgelände in Hamburg.

Hamburger SV U19 vs Hansa Rostock U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 2–4 Hansa Rostock U19