Hansa Rostock U19 1–0 BAK 07 U19: Result & Stats

Hansa Rostock U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

BAK 07 U19

M. Brzozowski 21'

10/29/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 7Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hansa Rostock U1951%

×Draw20%

BAK 07 U1930%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa Rostock U19Expected goals in this matchBAK 07 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.84

Hansa Rostock U19

2.42

BAK 07 U19

1.84

Hansa Rostock U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 33 away

2.05

creates per match

1.33

2.36

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.05

BAK 07 U19

1.33

allows per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.36

BAK 07 U19

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock U19 ↓

BAK 07 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock U19 or draw

70%

Hansa Rostock U19 or BAK 07 U19

80%

Draw or BAK 07 U19

49%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

31%

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

91%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

69%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

43%

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

84%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

55%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

63%

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.36 · 59 matches

BAK 07 U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 2.05 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.42

BAK 07 U19 attack 1.33 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

51%

level

20%

BAK 07 U19 scores more

30%

Hansa Rostock U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hansa Rostock U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

M. Brzozowski

53'

N. Kardam← M. Kalini

65'

T. Fürstenau← M. Hauer

65'

T. Krohn← K. Akogo

73'

A. Lubaki← D.Kanyi

73'

M. Mohammadi← C. Kavurmacioglu

81'

L. Schmitt← T. Rotfuß

81'

L. Sperner← L. Bera

84'

E. Ipek← T. Iraki

Hansa

BAK

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Rahn

65'▲T. Fürstenau←▼M. Hauer

65'▲T. Krohn←▼K. Akogo

81'▲L. Schmitt←▼T. Rotfuß

81'▲L. Sperner←▼L. Bera

Hansa Rostock U19 substitutes

FürstenauKrohnSchmittSpernerWrębiakowskiKarstenMohammadi

Manager: A. Arsovic

53'▲N. Kardam←▼M. Kalini

73'▲A. Lubaki←▼D.Kanyi

73'▲M. Mohammadi←▼C. Kavurmacioglu

84'▲E. Ipek←▼T. Iraki

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

KardamLubakiMohammadiIpekDağdemirBelaid

U19 Bundesliga: Hansa Rostock U19 1–0 BAK 07 U19

Hansa Rostock U19 beat BAK 07 U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 29, 2022.

Goals: M. Brzozowski (21').

The match was played at Volksstadion in Rostock.

Hansa Rostock U19 vs BAK 07 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hansa Rostock U19 1–0 BAK 07 U19