BAK 07 U19 1–4 Hansa Rostock U19: Result & Stats

BAK 07 U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Hansa Rostock U19

I. Danfa 34' (pen)

H. Schwarz 90+2'

N. Gennerich 76'

F. Bock 67'

B. Schulz 56'

5/10/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 13Poststadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

BAK 07 U1945%

×Draw20%

Hansa Rostock U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BAK 07 U19Expected goals in this matchHansa Rostock U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.94

BAK 07 U19

2.22

Hansa Rostock U19

1.94

BAK 07 U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 58 away

2.03

creates per match

1.84

2.03

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Hansa Rostock U19

1.84

allows per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Hansa Rostock U19

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BAK 07 U19 ↓

Hansa Rostock U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

BAK 07 U19 or draw

65%

BAK 07 U19 or Hansa Rostock U19

80%

Draw or Hansa Rostock U19

55%

Winning margin

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

26%

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

89%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

65%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

38%

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

86%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

58%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BAK 07 U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

Hansa Rostock U19 away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BAK 07 U19 attack 2.03 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.22

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 1.84 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

BAK 07 U19 scores more

45%

level

20%

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

35%

BAK 07 U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "BAK 07 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

I. DanfaPenalty

46'

B. Schulz← M. Heiden

46'

J. Thomas← R. Falk

56'

B. Schulz

63'

J. Dietrich← F. Hartmann

67'

F. Bock

68'

L. Schmidt← F. Yosma

68'

N. Bartschke← W. Hildebrandt

76'

81'

89'

89'

90+2'

BAK

Hansa

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Eckert

63'▲J. Dietrich←▼F. Hartmann

68'▲L. Schmidt←▼F. Yosma

68'▲N. Bartschke←▼W. Hildebrandt

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

DietrichSchmidtBartschkeYoussefTürkayDemırhanSayan

Manager: C. Rahn

46'▲B. Schulz←▼M. Heiden

46'▲J. Thomas←▼R. Falk

81'▲C. Weber←▼F. Sproģis

89'▲B. Peters←▼F. Bock

89'▲S. Termini←▼M. Kelm

Hansa Rostock U19 substitutes

SchulzThomasWeberPetersTerminiSchreck