Hannover 96 2–0 VfL Osnabrück: Result & Stats

Hannover 96

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

VfL Osnabrück

3/25/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Hannover 9630%

×Draw24%

VfL Osnabrück46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hannover 96Expected goals in this matchVfL Osnabrück

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.71

Hannover 96

1.33

VfL Osnabrück

1.71

VfL Osnabrück creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

1.77

creates per match

2.33

1.08

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Hannover 96

1.77

VfL Osnabrück

2.33

allows per match

Hannover 96

1.08

VfL Osnabrück

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hannover 96+0.00on par

VfL Osnabrück+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 ↓

VfL Osnabrück →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hannover 96 or draw

54%

Hannover 96 or VfL Osnabrück

76%

Draw or VfL Osnabrück

70%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 wins by 2+

13%

VfL Osnabrück wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Hannover 96 1+ goals

74%

Hannover 96 2+ goals

38%

Hannover 96 3+ goals

15%

VfL Osnabrück 1+ goals

82%

VfL Osnabrück 2+ goals

51%

VfL Osnabrück 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)

39%

VfL Osnabrück (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

VfL Osnabrück away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 attack 1.77 + VfL Osnabrück defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.33

VfL Osnabrück attack 2.33 + Hannover 96 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hannover 96 scores more

30%

level

24%

VfL Osnabrück scores more

46%

VfL Osnabrück at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "VfL Osnabrück will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff