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Hannover 96 vs Hamburger SV — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hannover 96
Hannover 96
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
8/23/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 3Heinz von Heiden-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Hannover 9637%
×Draw25%
Hamburger SV38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96
1.47
Hamburger SV
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

Hannover 96
1.55
Hamburger SV
1.74

allows per match

Hannover 96
1.23
Hamburger SV
1.39

finishing

Hannover 96+0.00on par
Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 ↓

Hamburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hannover 96 or draw
62%
Hannover 96 or Hamburger SV
75%
Draw or Hamburger SV
63%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 wins by 2+
18%
Hamburger SV wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hannover 96 1+ goals
77%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
43%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
18%
Hamburger SV 1+ goals
77%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
43%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
50%
Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 attack 1.55 + Hamburger SV defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.47

Hamburger SV attack 1.74 + Hannover 96 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hannover 96 scores more
37%
level
25%
Hamburger SV scores more
38%

Hamburger SV at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Hannover 96 1–0 Hamburger SV

Hannover 96 beat Hamburger SV 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on August 23, 2024.

The match was played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena in Hannover.