Hamburger SV 2–2 Hannover 96: Result & Stats

Hamburger SV

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Hannover 96

2/2/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 20Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Hamburger SV50%

×Draw23%

Hannover 9627%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SVExpected goals in this matchHannover 96

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.26

Hamburger SV

1.81

Hannover 96

1.26

Hamburger SV creates 44% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

2.10

creates per match

1.40

1.13

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Hamburger SV

2.10

Hannover 96

1.40

allows per match

Hamburger SV

1.13

Hannover 96

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Hannover 96+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

Hannover 96 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw

73%

Hamburger SV or Hannover 96

77%

Draw or Hannover 96

50%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

28%

Hannover 96 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

84%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

54%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

27%

Hannover 96 1+ goals

72%

Hannover 96 2+ goals

36%

Hannover 96 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

65%

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.53 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.10 + Hannover 96 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.81

Hannover 96 attack 1.40 + Hamburger SV defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hamburger SV scores more

50%

level

23%

Hannover 96 scores more

27%

Hamburger SV at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff