Hannover 96 3–0 FC Nurnberg: Result & Stats

Hannover 96

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

FC Nurnberg

1/26/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 19Heinz von Heiden-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Hannover 9646%

×Draw24%

FC Nurnberg30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hannover 96Expected goals in this matchFC Nurnberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.30

Hannover 96

1.67

FC Nurnberg

1.30

Hannover 96 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 121 away

1.55

creates per match

1.38

1.23

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Hannover 96

1.55

FC Nurnberg

1.38

allows per match

Hannover 96

1.23

FC Nurnberg

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hannover 96+0.00on par

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 ↓

FC Nurnberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hannover 96 or draw

70%

Hannover 96 or FC Nurnberg

76%

Draw or FC Nurnberg

54%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 wins by 2+

24%

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hannover 96 1+ goals

81%

Hannover 96 2+ goals

50%

Hannover 96 3+ goals

23%

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals

73%

FC Nurnberg 2+ goals

37%

FC Nurnberg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)

61%

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 attack 1.55 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Nurnberg attack 1.38 + Hannover 96 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hannover 96 scores more

46%

level

24%

FC Nurnberg scores more

30%

Hannover 96 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hannover 96 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff