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1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Nürnberg
1. FC Nürnberg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hannover 96
Hannover 96
3/1/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 24Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

1. FC Nürnberg39%
×Draw25%
Hannover 9636%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Hannover 96
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 119 away

creates per match

1. FC Nürnberg
1.35
Hannover 96
1.40

allows per match

1. FC Nürnberg
1.38
Hannover 96
1.53

finishing

1. FC Nürnberg+0.00on par
Hannover 96+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Nürnberg ↓

Hannover 96 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

1. FC Nürnberg or draw
64%
1. FC Nürnberg or Hannover 96
75%
Draw or Hannover 96
61%

Winning margin

1. FC Nürnberg wins by 2+
18%
Hannover 96 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

1. FC Nürnberg 1+ goals
76%
1. FC Nürnberg 2+ goals
42%
1. FC Nürnberg 3+ goals
18%
Hannover 96 1+ goals
75%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
40%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

1. FC Nürnberg (draw refunded)
52%
Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Nürnberg at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 121 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.53 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.35 + Hannover 96 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hannover 96 attack 1.40 + 1. FC Nürnberg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

1. FC Nürnberg scores more
39%
level
25%
Hannover 96 scores more
36%

1. FC Nürnberg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "1. FC Nürnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96

Hannover 96 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Max-Morlock-Stadion in Nürnberg.