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Hannover 96 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — Bundesliga 2026

Hannover 96
Hannover 96
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
U. Bech 85'
K. Karaman 24'
L. Andreasen 11'
Marcelo 5'
11/28/2015BundesligaBundesliga · Round 14HDI Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hannover 9642%
×Draw28%
FC Ingolstadt 0430%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96
1.29
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.04

Hannover 96 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 12 away

creates per match

Hannover 96
1.34
FC Ingolstadt 04
0.75

allows per match

Hannover 96
1.34
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.25

finishing

Hannover 96+0.00on par
FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hannover 96 or draw
70%
Hannover 96 or FC Ingolstadt 04
72%
Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04
58%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 wins by 2+
19%
FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hannover 96 1+ goals
72%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
37%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
14%
FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
65%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
28%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
58%
FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 attack 1.34 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.75 + Hannover 96 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hannover 96 scores more
42%
level
28%
FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
30%

Hannover 96 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hannover 96 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
K. KaramanHannover 96Hannover 96 · F
8.4

Match Events

5'
Marcelo↳ Miiko Albornoz
11'
L. Andreasen↳ K. Karaman
15'
Leon Andreasen
24'
K. Karaman↳ U. Bech
46'
L. Hinterseer← T. Pekhart
46'
D. da Costa← R. Bauer
50'
Christian Schulz
50'
Tobias Levels
56'
Marvin Matip
60'
Danny da Costa
71'
C. Gülselam← L. Andreasen
77'
A. Cohen← M. Leckie
79'
Ceyhun Gülselam
82'
C. Benschop← A. Sobiech
85'
U. Bech
87'
Felipe← S. Sané

Possession

45%Hannover

Shots

8Hannover

Pass accuracy

48%Hannover

Statistics

HannoverFC
Overview
45%Possession55%
8Total Shots10
3Corners4
0Fouls0
Shots
8Total Shots10
4On Target5
2Off Target3
2Blocked2
6Inside Box4
2Outside Box6
Passing
45%Possession55%
373Total Passes457
250Accurate Passes329
67%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
0Fouls0
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Bundesliga: Hannover 96 4–0 FC Ingolstadt 04

Hannover 96 beat FC Ingolstadt 04 4-0 in Bundesliga on November 28, 2015.

Goals: Marcelo (5'), L. Andreasen (11'), K. Karaman (24'), U. Bech (85').

FC Ingolstadt 04 controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at HDI Arena in Hannover.