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FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96 — Bundesliga 2026

FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Hannover 96
Hannover 96
M. Hartmann 25'
A. Morales 10'
H. Kiyotake 82'
H. Sakai 58'
4/23/2016BundesligaBundesliga · Round 31Audi Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0452%
×Draw22%
Hannover 9626%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.93
Hannover 96
1.29

FC Ingolstadt 04 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 32 away

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.60
Hannover 96
1.19

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.40
Hannover 96
2.25

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par
Hannover 96+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

Hannover 96 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw
74%
FC Ingolstadt 04 or Hannover 96
78%
Draw or Hannover 96
48%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
30%
Hannover 96 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
85%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
57%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
30%
Hannover 96 1+ goals
72%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
37%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
67%
Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.60 + Hannover 96 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.93

Hannover 96 attack 1.19 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
52%
level
22%
Hannover 96 scores more
26%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
M. SuttnerFC Ingolstadt 04FC Ingolstadt 04 · D
7.9

Match Events

3'
Benjamin Hübner
10'
A. Morales↳ D. da Costa
20'
Romain Brégerie
25'
M. Hartmann↳ P. Groß
32'
Waldemar Anton
46'
I. Fossum← A. Milosevic
47'
Ádám Szalai
55'
Moritz Hartmann
58'
H. Sakai↳ Á. Szalai
59'
L. Hinterseer← M. Hartmann
67'
V. Sulejmani← N. Sarenren-Bazee
73'
A. Cohen← D. Lezcano
80'
E. Prib← F. Klaus
82'
H. Kiyotake
83'
R. Bauer← M. Leckie

Possession

32%FC

Shots

9FC

Pass accuracy

40%FC

Statistics

FCHannover
Overview
32%Possession68%
9Total Shots13
2Corners7
0Fouls0
Shots
9Total Shots13
3On Target4
4Off Target6
2Blocked3
5Inside Box9
4Outside Box4
Passing
32%Possession68%
254Total Passes510
125Accurate Passes375
49%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
0Fouls0
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Match Recap: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96

FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hannover 96 drew 2-2 in Bundesliga on April 23, 2016.

Goals: A. Morales (10'), M. Hartmann (25'), H. Sakai (58'), H. Kiyotake (82').

Hannover 96 controlled possession (68%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Audi Sportpark in Ingolstadt.