Hannover 96 U19 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Hannover 96 U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bayer Leverkusen U19

D. Husser 28'

A. Stepanov 81'

K. Alajbegović 23'

3/8/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 6Eilenriedestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Hannover 96 U1940%

×Draw22%

Bayer Leverkusen U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hannover 96 U19Expected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.79

Hannover 96 U19

1.86

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 64 away

2.41

creates per match

2.20

1.38

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19

2.41

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.20

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19

1.38

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw

62%

Hannover 96 U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19

78%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19

60%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

22%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

84%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

55%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

28%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

83%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

53%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.41 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.86

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.20 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

40%

level

22%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

38%

Hannover 96 U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

K. Alajbegović

28'

D. Husser

65'

M. Culbreath← J. Mensah

71'

J. Meusel← O. Wegner

77'

M. Tjaden← D. Husser

77'

P. Lorenz← Rafael Martins Marques

81'

A. Stepanov

84'

O. Schwarz← R. Rühling

90+1'

E. Owen← F. Onyeka

90+3'

J. Kurowski← K. Alajbegović

Hannover

Bayer

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Lottner

71'▲J. Meusel←▼O. Wegner

77'▲M. Tjaden←▼D. Husser

77'▲P. Lorenz←▼Rafael Martins Marques

84'▲O. Schwarz←▼R. Rühling

Hannover 96 U19 substitutes

MeuselTjadenLorenzSchwarzRoseliebLeidemannKleineberg

Manager: Sergi Runge

65'▲M. Culbreath←▼J. Mensah

90+1'▲E. Owen←▼F. Onyeka

90+3'▲J. Kurowski←▼K. Alajbegović

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

CulbreathOwenKurowskiLeuchterFeratiCamaraGernhardt

Match Recap: Hannover 96 U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Hannover 96 U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 8, 2025.

Goals: K. Alajbegović (23'), D. Husser (28'), A. Stepanov (81').

The match was played at Eilenriedestadion in Hannover.

Hannover 96 U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hannover 96 U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19