Bayer Leverkusen U19 1–1 Hannover 96 U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hannover 96 U19

A. Stepanov 31'

Rafael Martins Marques 85'

2/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 1Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1950%

×Draw20%

Hannover 96 U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayer Leverkusen U19Expected goals in this matchHannover 96 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.67

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.23

Hannover 96 U19

1.67

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 74 away

2.65

creates per match

2.07

1.26

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.65

Hannover 96 U19

2.07

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.26

Hannover 96 U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

Hannover 96 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw

71%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or Hannover 96 U19

80%

Draw or Hannover 96 U19

50%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

30%

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

89%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

65%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

38%

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

81%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

50%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

Hannover 96 U19 away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.81 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.65 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.23

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.07 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

50%

level

20%

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

29%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

A. Stepanov

53'

M. Szép← F. Onyeka

62'

A. Kordi← B. Pfundheller

62'

R. Rühling← A. Hanke

62'

T. Kurt← O. Wegner

68'

B. Ndi← J. Mensah

81'

R. Stolpe← A. Vogel

83'

N. Gernhardt← E. Owen

85'

Rafael Martins Marques

86'

E. Roselieb← T. Hobrecht

Bayer

Hannover

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Sergi Runge

53'▲M. Szép←▼F. Onyeka

68'▲B. Ndi←▼J. Mensah

83'▲N. Gernhardt←▼E. Owen

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

SzépNdiGernhardtKurowskiFeratiSchriefĐedović

Manager: D. Lottner

62'▲A. Kordi←▼B. Pfundheller

62'▲R. Rühling←▼A. Hanke

62'▲T. Kurt←▼O. Wegner

81'▲R. Stolpe←▼A. Vogel

86'▲E. Roselieb←▼T. Hobrecht

Hannover 96 U19 substitutes

KordiRühlingKurtStolpeRoseliebBelgerLange

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Hannover 96 U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 and Hannover 96 U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 1, 2025.

Goals: A. Stepanov (31'), Rafael Martins Marques (85').

The match was played at Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion in Leverkusen.

Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Hannover 96 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Hannover 96 U19