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Hankofen-Hailing vs Bayern Hof — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Hankofen-Hailing
Hankofen-Hailing
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
V. Harlander 90+1'
T. Lermer 34'
J. Blumel 25'
B. Wagner 3'
10/14/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 17Maierhofer Bau - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hankofen-Hailing56%
×Draw21%
Bayern Hof23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hankofen-Hailing
2.07
Bayern Hof
1.25

Hankofen-Hailing creates 66% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 69 away

creates per match

Hankofen-Hailing
2.50
Bayern Hof
1.49

allows per match

Hankofen-Hailing
1.00
Bayern Hof
1.64

finishing

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par
Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hankofen-Hailing ↓

Bayern Hof →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hankofen-Hailing or draw
77%
Hankofen-Hailing or Bayern Hof
79%
Draw or Bayern Hof
44%

Winning margin

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+
34%
Bayern Hof wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals
87%
Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals
61%
Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals
34%
Bayern Hof 1+ goals
71%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
36%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)
71%
Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hankofen-Hailing at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.64 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hankofen-Hailing attack 2.50 + Bayern Hof defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.07

Bayern Hof attack 1.49 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hankofen-Hailing scores more
56%
level
21%
Bayern Hof scores more
23%

Hankofen-Hailing at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hankofen-Hailing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
B. Wagner
25'
J. Blumel
34'
T. Lermer
90+1'
V. Harlander

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Hankofen-Hailing 4–0 Bayern Hof

Hankofen-Hailing beat Bayern Hof 4-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 14, 2023.

Goals: B. Wagner (3'), J. Blumel (25'), T. Lermer (34'), V. Harlander (90+1').

The match was played at Maierhofer Bau - Stadion in Leiblfing.