Bayern Hof 1–1 Hankofen-Hailing: Result & Stats

Bayern Hof

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hankofen-Hailing

J. Hamann 28'

T. Richter 51'

5/4/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 36Städtisches Stadion Grüne Au

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bayern Hof36%

×Draw24%

Hankofen-Hailing40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern HofExpected goals in this matchHankofen-Hailing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.55

Bayern Hof

1.47

Hankofen-Hailing

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 18 away

1.44

creates per match

1.67

1.43

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bayern Hof

1.44

Hankofen-Hailing

1.67

allows per match

Bayern Hof

1.43

Hankofen-Hailing

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Hof ↓

Hankofen-Hailing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bayern Hof or draw

60%

Bayern Hof or Hankofen-Hailing

76%

Draw or Hankofen-Hailing

64%

Winning margin

Bayern Hof wins by 2+

17%

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Bayern Hof 1+ goals

77%

Bayern Hof 2+ goals

43%

Bayern Hof 3+ goals

18%

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals

79%

Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals

46%

Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Bayern Hof (draw refunded)

48%

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Hof at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Hankofen-Hailing away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Hof attack 1.44 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Hankofen-Hailing attack 1.67 + Bayern Hof defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bayern Hof scores more

36%

level

24%

Hankofen-Hailing scores more

40%

Hankofen-Hailing at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hankofen-Hailing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

J. Hamann

51'

T. Richter

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff