Hankofen-Hailing 4–2 Ammerthal: Result & Stats

Hankofen-Hailing

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Ammerthal

D. Hofer 58'

J. Blumel 45', 38'

T. Beck 25'

C. Heinloth 56'

D. Gommel 20'

4/20/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 33Maierhofer Bau - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hankofen-Hailing57%

×Draw20%

Ammerthal22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hankofen-HailingExpected goals in this matchAmmerthal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.31

Hankofen-Hailing

2.20

Ammerthal

1.31

Hankofen-Hailing creates 68% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 52 away

2.50

creates per match

1.63

1.00

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Hankofen-Hailing

2.50

Ammerthal

1.63

allows per match

Hankofen-Hailing

1.00

Ammerthal

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par

Ammerthal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hankofen-Hailing ↓

Ammerthal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Hankofen-Hailing or draw

78%

Hankofen-Hailing or Ammerthal

80%

Draw or Ammerthal

43%

Winning margin

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+

35%

Ammerthal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals

89%

Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals

64%

Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals

37%

Ammerthal 1+ goals

73%

Ammerthal 2+ goals

38%

Ammerthal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)

72%

Ammerthal (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hankofen-Hailing at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Ammerthal away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.90 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hankofen-Hailing attack 2.50 + Ammerthal defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.20

Ammerthal attack 1.63 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hankofen-Hailing scores more

57%

level

20%

Ammerthal scores more

22%

Hankofen-Hailing at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hankofen-Hailing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

D. Gommel

25'

T. Beck

38'

J. Blumel

45'

J. Blumel

56'

C. Heinloth

58'

D. Hofer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff