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Ammerthal vs Hankofen-Hailing — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ammerthal
Ammerthal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hankofen-Hailing
Hankofen-Hailing
9/30/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 14Sportplatz Ammerthal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ammerthal40%
×Draw24%
Hankofen-Hailing36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ammerthal
1.61
Hankofen-Hailing
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ammerthal
1.72
Hankofen-Hailing
1.67

allows per match

Ammerthal
1.38
Hankofen-Hailing
1.50

finishing

Ammerthal+0.00on par
Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ammerthal ↓

Hankofen-Hailing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ammerthal or draw
64%
Ammerthal or Hankofen-Hailing
76%
Draw or Hankofen-Hailing
60%

Winning margin

Ammerthal wins by 2+
20%
Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ammerthal 1+ goals
80%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
48%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
22%
Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals
78%
Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals
45%
Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ammerthal (draw refunded)
53%
Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ammerthal at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Hankofen-Hailing away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ammerthal attack 1.72 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

Hankofen-Hailing attack 1.67 + Ammerthal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ammerthal scores more
40%
level
24%
Hankofen-Hailing scores more
36%

Ammerthal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ammerthal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Ammerthal 1–0 Hankofen-Hailing

Ammerthal beat Hankofen-Hailing 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Ammerthal in Ammerthal.