Hangzhou Greentown 3–0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Hangzhou Greentown

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

9/1/2022

Super League · Round 12Huzhou Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown40%

×Draw24%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hangzhou GreentownExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou Evergrande FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.53

Hangzhou Greentown

1.63

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 68 away

2.01

creates per match

1.84

1.22

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown

2.01

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.84

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.22

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw

64%

Hangzhou Greentown or Guangzhou Evergrande FC

76%

Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC

60%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

20%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

80%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

48%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

22%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

78%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

45%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

53%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.22 · 72 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 2.01 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.63

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.84 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

40%

level

24%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

36%

Hangzhou Greentown at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff