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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hangzhou Greentown — Super League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
11/8/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Wuyuan River Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC50%
×Draw23%
Hangzhou Greentown28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.83
Hangzhou Greentown
1.31

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 73 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.04
Hangzhou Greentown
1.60

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.03
Hangzhou Greentown
1.63

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
72%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Hangzhou Greentown
77%
Draw or Hangzhou Greentown
50%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
27%
Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
84%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
54%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
28%
Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
73%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
38%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
64%
Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.04 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.60 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
50%
level
23%
Hangzhou Greentown scores more
28%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1–5 Hangzhou Greentown

Hangzhou Greentown beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 5-1 in Super League on November 8, 2022.

The match was played at Wuyuan River Stadium in Haikou.