Hang Yuen 1–4 Benfica: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Hang Yuen

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Benfica

5/2/2018

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Taipei Municipal Stadium (Taipei)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hang Yuen35%

×Draw19%

Benfica46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hang YuenExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

2.50

Hang Yuen

2.17

Benfica

2.50

Benfica creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

2.33

2.67

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Hang Yuen

0.67

Benfica

2.33

allows per match

Hang Yuen

2.67

Benfica

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hang Yuen+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hang Yuen ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Hang Yuen or draw

54%

Hang Yuen or Benfica

81%

Draw or Benfica

65%

Winning margin

Hang Yuen wins by 2+

19%

Benfica wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Hang Yuen 1+ goals

89%

Hang Yuen 2+ goals

64%

Hang Yuen 3+ goals

36%

Benfica 1+ goals

92%

Benfica 2+ goals

71%

Benfica 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Hang Yuen (draw refunded)

43%

Benfica (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hang Yuen at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hang Yuen attack 0.67 + Benfica defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Benfica attack 2.33 + Hang Yuen defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hang Yuen scores more

35%

level

19%

Benfica scores more

46%

Benfica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff