Benfica 3–2 Hang Yuen: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Benfica

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Hang Yuen

3/7/2018

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Macau Olympic Complex Stadium (Taipa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Benfica76%

×Draw14%

Hang Yuen11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenficaExpected goals in this matchHang Yuen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.17

1.17

Benfica

3.17

Hang Yuen

1.17

Benfica creates 171% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Benfica

2.00

Hang Yuen

1.00

allows per match

Benfica

1.33

Hang Yuen

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par

Hang Yuen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Hang Yuen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Benfica or draw

89%

Benfica or Hang Yuen

86%

Draw or Hang Yuen

24%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+

56%

Hang Yuen wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals

96%

Benfica 2+ goals

82%

Benfica 3+ goals

60%

Hang Yuen 1+ goals

69%

Hang Yuen 2+ goals

33%

Hang Yuen 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)

87%

Hang Yuen (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Hang Yuen away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.00 + Hang Yuen defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Hang Yuen attack 1.00 + Benfica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Benfica scores more

76%

level

14%

Hang Yuen scores more

11%

Benfica at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff