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Hang Sai vs Chiba — Primeira Divisão 2026

Hang Sai
Hang Sai
FT
1 – 2
Chiba
Chiba
5/31/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hang Sai31%
×Draw19%
Chiba50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hang Sai
2.08
Chiba
2.63

Chiba creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 16 away

creates per match

Hang Sai
2.35
Chiba
2.50

allows per match

Hang Sai
2.76
Chiba
1.81

finishing

Hang Sai+0.00on par
Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hang Sai ↓

Chiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Hang Sai or draw
50%
Hang Sai or Chiba
81%
Draw or Chiba
69%

Winning margin

Hang Sai wins by 2+
16%
Chiba wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Hang Sai 1+ goals
87%
Hang Sai 2+ goals
61%
Hang Sai 3+ goals
34%
Chiba 1+ goals
93%
Chiba 2+ goals
73%
Chiba 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Hang Sai (draw refunded)
38%
Chiba (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hang Sai at home — creates 2.35, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

Chiba away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hang Sai attack 2.35 + Chiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.08

Chiba attack 2.50 + Hang Sai defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hang Sai scores more
31%
level
19%
Chiba scores more
50%

Chiba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hang Sai vs Chiba

Chiba beat Hang Sai 2-1 in Primeira Divisão on May 31, 2026.