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Chiba vs Hang Sai — Primeira Divisão 2026

Chiba
Chiba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hang Sai
Hang Sai
1/30/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chiba63%
×Draw16%
Hang Sai20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiba
3.10
Hang Sai
1.77

Chiba creates 75% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

creates per match

Chiba
2.71
Hang Sai
1.84

allows per match

Chiba
1.71
Hang Sai
3.50

finishing

Chiba+0.00on par
Hang Sai+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiba ↓

Hang Sai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Chiba or draw
80%
Chiba or Hang Sai
84%
Draw or Hang Sai
37%

Winning margin

Chiba wins by 2+
44%
Hang Sai wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chiba 1+ goals
95%
Chiba 2+ goals
81%
Chiba 3+ goals
58%
Hang Sai 1+ goals
83%
Hang Sai 2+ goals
53%
Hang Sai 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Chiba (draw refunded)
76%
Hang Sai (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiba at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Hang Sai away — creates 1.84, concedes 3.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiba attack 2.71 + Hang Sai defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.10

Hang Sai attack 1.84 + Chiba defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Chiba scores more
63%
level
16%
Hang Sai scores more
20%

Chiba at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Chiba 2–0 Hang Sai

Chiba beat Hang Sai 2-0 in Primeira Divisão on January 30, 2026.