Hanau 93 3–1 FC 1906 Erlensee: Result & Stats

Hanau 93

FT

3 – 1

FC 1906 Erlensee

9/29/2021

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 10Sportplatz an der Kastanienallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Hanau 9348%

×Draw22%

FC 1906 Erlensee30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hanau 93Expected goals in this matchFC 1906 Erlensee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.44

Hanau 93

1.88

FC 1906 Erlensee

1.44

Hanau 93 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 57 away

1.77

creates per match

1.16

1.71

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Hanau 93

1.77

FC 1906 Erlensee

1.16

allows per match

Hanau 93

1.71

FC 1906 Erlensee

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hanau 93+0.00on par

FC 1906 Erlensee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanau 93 ↓

FC 1906 Erlensee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Hanau 93 or draw

70%

Hanau 93 or FC 1906 Erlensee

78%

Draw or FC 1906 Erlensee

52%

Winning margin

Hanau 93 wins by 2+

27%

FC 1906 Erlensee wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hanau 93 1+ goals

85%

Hanau 93 2+ goals

56%

Hanau 93 3+ goals

29%

FC 1906 Erlensee 1+ goals

76%

FC 1906 Erlensee 2+ goals

42%

FC 1906 Erlensee 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hanau 93 (draw refunded)

62%

FC 1906 Erlensee (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanau 93 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.71 · 91 matches

FC 1906 Erlensee away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanau 93 attack 1.77 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.88

FC 1906 Erlensee attack 1.16 + Hanau 93 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hanau 93 scores more

48%

level

22%

FC 1906 Erlensee scores more

30%

Hanau 93 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hanau 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff